Rush to wage 2014-16 campaigns is folly

 

One political adage that approaches cliché status in this era of lightning-fast news cycles is this: “____________ is an eternity in politics.” You fill in the blank.

At the national level, the timeline attached to that phrase is six weeks, or two months, or maybe six months. At the state and local level, the lead-up to an election is judged a bit more freely, though some voters’ decisions are made a matter of days before heading to the polling place.

Nonetheless, the media obsession with the 2014 -- and even the 2016 – elections at this point in time, in September 2013, is reaching irrational status.

Within days after President Obama won re-election last November, some commentators on the 24/7 cable news channels bluntly refused to engage in speculation about the presidential campaign four years hence. Yet, within weeks the 2016 “race” for the presidency became standard fare on all three cable news networks.

The temptation was just too great.

In recent days in Michigan, we have seen an attack ad on the Web launched by the Democratic governors, pummeling Gov. Rick Snyder for not doing enough to lift the Michigan economy. We’ve seen the launch of an expensive negative ad campaign on TV, financed by a shadowy conservative superPAC, that targets Congressman Gary Peters, the presumed Democratic nominee for the Senate seat being vacated by veteran Carl Levin.

One sage public relations pro in Lansing took to Twitter in the minutes before the announcement of the Pure PAC ad offensive against Peters to ask: At this point in the election cycle, is there anyone other than political junkies and PR specialists who have any interest in a 2014 Senate campaign ad?

As for the 30-second spot beating up Snyder, I suspect that virtually no voters in October 2014 will be influenced by a year-old ad that continues the debate over who deserves more credit for Michigan’s 2010-11 rebound, Snyder or former governor Jennifer Granholm.

With no announced candidates for the White House and Obama less than nine months into his second term, do the political commentators really believe that the average member of the public cares how Hillary Clinton fares in a new poll against Sen. Rand Paul?

Incredibly, 11 polls asking voters about their 2016 choices have been conducted just since Aug 1.

We’ve also seen meaningless Michigan polls that gauge the strength of Snyder against the presumptive Democratic gubernatorial nominee, former congressman Mark Schauer of Battle Creek.

But many people responding to these phone surveys know nothing about Schauer. He is viewed, at this early stage of the game, as the ABS candidate – Anybody But Snyder. Let’s remember that less than three years ago, Schauer, on his home turf, couldn’t win re-election to his congressional seat.

We have no idea how Campaign 2014 will shape up. Still, the so-called political pros engage in ads and polls and email PR campaigns.

Hopefully, 2014 will produce a gubernatorial contest about business tax cuts vs. investments in higher education – a substantive discussion focused on how best to lift the still-struggling Michigan economy. But, maybe not.

As for the 2016 presidential campaign, it would be foolish to predict the issues that will steer that contest. On Election Day in 2012, could anyone have predicted that Obama’s most intense struggle at the start of his second term would center on U.S. missile strikes on Syria? Foreign policy typically escapes the discussion created by the media and campaign strategists in the midst of a contest for the White House.

In June, as Congress coasted toward its summer break the big issue that was expected to dominate the recess was immigration reform. Then, Egypt exploded a second time, Syrian madman Bashar Assad gassed his people, and one last attempt to kill Obamacare became the GOP’s obsession. Immigration reform is now off the table. Virtually no one in political circles was predicting that just three months ago.

In this constant rush to premature judgments, consider this: John Kennedy launched his campaign for the presidency in January 1960 – in the actual year of the election. Of course, JFK needn’t worry about Twitter or Facebook or YouTube or the blogs or wacky websites delivering a damaging setback early in his campaign.

In Michigan, with time as a supposed enemy, the Republicans, facing a tea party insurgency, are in a far more precarious position than their Democratic counterparts.

A year ahead of time, the party faithful fret over the GOP’s ability to make a strong showing in the 2014 contest for Levin’s seat, with former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land as their unexpected standardbearer, taking on Peters.

The party activists gathered this weekend on Mackinac Island heard from potential 2016 presidential candidates such as Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindahl and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul.

But their overriding focus is much more immediate: the state convention that takes place about a year from now. Lt. Gov. Brian Calley, Attorney General Bill Schuette and Secretary of State Ruth Johnson will seek renomination at that confab.

What’s more, the list of anxieties extends beyond next year. The GOP establishment wonders if their state party chairman, Bobby Schostak, can win re-election at the 2015 state convention, or if he will face an uncomfortably close vote like he endured at the last convention.

This is all about internal party politics. The average voter, particularly the all-important independents and ticket-splitters in the mainstream middle, are oblivious to all these maneuvers.

And with good reason. Obviously, the political climate and the hot-button issues will change once or twice or three times in the next 12 months.

In addition, one would think that the GOP has become immune to all these fanciful predictions and machinations. After all, the Republicans in 2011 saw Michele Bachmann, Donald Trump and Herman Cain rise and fall quickly in the presidential polls.

There is another old adage says that the American electorate doesn’t start paying attention to presidential and congressional campaigns until after Labor Day. It’s after Labor Day. But those who can’t help themselves refuse to acknowledge that they’re one year ahead of schedule.

Inevitably and unfortunately, political campaigns focus on the horse race and not what the winner will attempt to accomplish after the horse is in the barn.