The ongoing poisonous dysfunction in Congress reached a historic level this past week as the shutdown may have triggered a breakdown – the demolition of the two-party system, with a majority of voters shunning the Republicans and the Democrats and gradually embracing a middle ground as independents.
The proportion of voters identifying themselves as nonpartisan independents has been on the rise, and the shutdown standoff on Capitol Hill will surely accelerate that momentum. Congress’ approval rating has now plummeted to 10 percent in one poll and, anecdotally, voters of all stripes refer to lawmakers who stubbornly refuse to reopen the government as knuckleheads, adults acting as children, or worse.
Much worse.
Beyond a continuing shutdown or a disastrous downgrade in the nation’s bond rating, the intransigent members of Congress do not realize the opening they are giving to centrists, moderates and independents to marginalize hyper-partisan lawmakers.
Our nation’s elected leaders engage in posturing, extortion and brinksmanship as they perpetuate this logjam. Bipartisan cooperation, reaching compromise and consensus, legitimate negotiations – they’re all gone. This refusal to govern will likely continue in some form for months because the current fight is over a 2-month continuing resolution to briefly fund the government.
The “Do Nothing Congress” has literally become a do-nothing group of schemers obsessed with getting the upper hand and winning elections. The result is a cowardly group of lawmakers marching in lockstep to their hyper-partisan tune, bouncing from crisis to crisis.
We are witnessing the clearest sign yet that most members of Congress, particularly on the Republican side, are loyal to their party first, and to the country second.
A group of about 30 shrill tea party Republicans in the House has managed to impose minority rule on Capitol Hill as they drag the GOP further to the right. Imagine what a cohesive group of 30 independents might accomplish in pushing both parties back toward the center.
Veteran Washington reporter Ron Fournier has written that the newest generation of voters, the Millenials who are in their 20s, will lead the way toward more independent thinking and less party allegiance.
Millenials hate the combative, finger-pointing approach that creates gridlock on Capitol Hill. They don’t identify with the Republican or Democratic party. They are pragmatic. They are do-ers. And they are impatient.
What happens next could be quite interesting.
The meltdown of September and October 2013 could be the moment when strident partisanship becomes nothing more than a sideshow, a game played by those on the fringe – left and right.
Birthers, Occupy Wall Streeters, isolationists and “Obama obsessors” may become irrelevant.
Some polls over the last three years have shown the number of voters identifying themselves as independents rising as high as 44 percent, significantly above the self-identified Republicans and Democrats.
Clearly some of these voters in the middle lean toward one party or the other on a consistent basis. Others are ticket-splitters who shun the far left and the far right. But they are obviously disgruntled voters who want a Congress that engages in compromise and common sense solutions, not ideological bickering and backbiting.
Several centrist groups with an anti-partisan tilt have emerged, such as No Labels, Olympia’s List, Rise of the Center and the Common Sense Coalition, while others are research-oriented organizations such as the Bipartisan Policy Center, Third Way, and the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.
No Labels has led the way, gaining traction on Capitol Hill earlier this year with their “No Budget, No Pay” initiative and earning attention with other proposals such as a “Jobs First” plan. More importantly, No Labels has cobbled together a group of 85 congressional lawmakers known as the Problem Solvers – Republicans and Democrats – who have pledged to work in a bipartisan manner.
Conventional wisdom in the nation’s capital says that partisan gerrymandering and the stunning amounts of cash poured into campaigns has marginalized the independent voter and forced out nearly all of the moderates in Congress.
Those who closely study the 435 House districts say the lines have been so thoroughly manipulated that the number of competitive seats lies somewhere between 14 and 30.
Yet, all of these projections are based on two-way races without a viable third candidate.
The fear of a primary election challenge from an ultraconservative tea party candidate has dramatically altered Republican politics on Capitol Hill. Mainstream incumbents lean further and further to the right so that they are not labeled a RINO (Republican In Name Only) or, worse yet, a “liberal Republican” – as if such a political animal exists.
But how different would those primaries play out if a third candidate -- a pragmatic, no-nonsense independent -- was waiting in the wings along with the hapless hopeful put forward by the Democrats? What if the elephant in the room for the GOP was how to compete in November with a centrist?
Obviously party-affiliated candidates enjoy a huge advantage in our current system. But it only takes 34 percent of the vote to win a three-way race. That presents a wealth of opportunities when more than 80 percent of the country is fed up with Congress.
A solid independent candidate could surely use all the mess in Washington to great effect, making the case that blindly partisan congressional Republicans and Democrats are collectively responsible for a broken government.
In his book, “Centrist Manifesto,” Charles Wheelan envisions a Senate with 47 Republicans, 48 Democrats, and 5 independent centrists – neither party in control. At that point, the centrists could wield extraordinary influence as the key swing votes, just s Justice Anthony Kennedy exerts outsized power on the Supreme Court.
The centrists could be the intellectual center of the Senate, like a permanent Simpson-Bowles deficit reduction commission, offering a pragmatic starting point for negotiations on any issue, according to Wheelan. This small nonpartisan contingent could develop considerable leverage that would sway the Senate as their ideas and proposals command attention.
Sounds like anyone who embraces this scenario is dreaming.
Maybe. But it could come true now that Washington has become a nightmare.
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