Will Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel make a run for Senate?

Veteran Sen. Carl Levin’s oddly timed announcement – late on a Thursday, with no press conference – that he will not seek re-election has set off a frenzy of commentary online about his possible successor.

Macomb County Executive Mark Hackel is among those Democrats mentioned as a future successor in the 2014 elections. Hackel, however, may have a big problem getting past the primary, given his pragmatic, bipartisan approach and his repeated praise for Republican Gov. Rick Snyder.

Another intriguing aspect of this upcoming political drama is this: What behind-the-scenes role will the Michigan Democratic Party’s new chairman, Lon Johnson, play in the choice of a nominee?

Johnson owes a great deal to Levin’s older brother, Rep. Sandy Levin, for his internal coup, ousting longtime party chairman Mark Brewer. Yet, Sandy Levin’s name shows up nowhere in the rampant speculation about the Senate vacancy on Facebook and Twitter tonight.

The guessing game is fun, but it could be that the White House -- determined not to lose a solid Democratic seat -- may quietly choose the candidate who represents the best opportunity for Johnson and his wife, Julianna Smoot, the 2012 Obama re-election deputy campaign manager, to raise stacks of campaign cash.

Still, make no mistake -- the timing of Levin’s announcement is golden for Rep. Gary Peters, a Bloomfield Township Democrat.

The domino effect is in full play here, as well as the prospect that every potential Democratic candidate for governor in 2014 will have to reassess their future ambitions. This could be good news for Republican Gov. Rick Snyder's re-election if Democratic loyalties -- and campaign contributions -- are divided between Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate.

Former Democratic congressman Hansen Clarke of Detroit, who was stripped of his House seat as Peters latched onto one of the nation’s most strangely shaped, gerrymandered congressional districts, may try to get back in the game by backing Peters and hoping to regain his Capitol Hill presence in 2014.

On the Republican side, young, ambitious, maverick Rep. Justin Amash of Grand Rapids has expressed interest in a Senate run in the past and an open seat in ’14 makes it much more likely that he will throw his hat into the ring.
Attorney General Bill Schuette, who served in the House from 1985 -1991 and who has clearly viewed his AG perch as a political stepping stone, is also a likely candidate. (A footnote: A young Bill Shuette lost to Levin in the 1990 election.)
GOP Rep. Mike Rogers of Brighton, a rapidly rising congressman as the House Intelligence Committee chairman, is also likely to take a long look at the Senate seat.
And, of course, the tea party types and Religious Right will want to field a candidate, perhaps social conservative Gary Glenn.

With Democrats dominating Senate races in this state for most of the past several decades, the speculation about a Levin successor includes an unlikely bid by former governor Jennifer Granholm.

A new Public Policy Polling survey that anticipated possible ’14 match-ups found Sen. Levin was up by 11 percentage points over Congresswoman Candy Miller of Harrison Township, 15 points above Amash, 16 points on top of Rogers, and 19 points ahead of Schuette.

Watch for a big push in the coming days for a Miller candidacy.

Miller vs. Hackel would be a dream match-up for Macomb County political junkies.