Jeb Bush's flip-flop on immigration has Washington all aflutter

 

Washington is all abuzz today about former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush’s flip-flop on immigration reform and whether his change of heart signals that he’s preparing for a presidential run in 2016.

In his new book, Bush wrote that he does not support a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants living in the U.S., a central tenet of reform proposals being crafted in Congress. Bush has long chided the Republican Party to adopt immigration reform and improve its outreach to minority and immigrant voters. During the 2012 campaign, he said that Mitt Romney’s immigration policies were out of touch.

Many political observers admired his stance as bold and pragmatic. And an effective way for Republicans to reach out to Hispanic voters. But now, he is in opposition to his brother, George W., and he is firmly in the camp he called “the mainstream of conservatism” – the anti-amnesty camp -- that he had shunned in the past.

So, supporters of immigration reform on Capitol Hill and in the GOP were stunned by Bush’s turnabout, indicating that it gives fence-sitting Republican lawmakers, those who were starting to accept reform as the new norm, the political cover to stick to their conservative position.

Bush now says that providing a means for the nation’s 11 million illegal immigrants to gain citizenship would violate the rule of law. Instead, undocumented workers must first return to their homeland – for as long as 10 years -- if they desire U.S. citizenship, or they can pursue legal permanent residency, he said in his book and in TV interviews he granted on Monday.

In particular, the former governor’s reversal could damage the so-called Senate “Gang of Eight’s” progress on this issue. Leading the charge in that effort is a fellow Florida Republican, Sen. Marco Rubio.

“It's hard to see how Bush's reentry into the immigration debate is going to help a bill forward,” writes ABC’s Rick Klein. “Conservatives in the both the Senate and especially the House now have all the pretext they need to oppose a deal that includes a pathway to citizenship. Strip that from a bill, and Democrats will be under tremendous pressure to scuttle the whole effort - something many Republicans believe President Obama secretly wants to happen anyway, for political gain.”

Which brings us to the really big swirl of speculation out there in political circles: Is Bush trying to get to the right of his former protégé, Marco Rubio, in advance of the next presidential election cycle?

Here’s Univision’s Jordan Fabian: “Allies of immigration reform, who once championed the ex-Florida governor as a model Republican, are left wondering what exactly happened to their old flame. … Just last summer, Rubio was the one holding out on a path to citizenship, while Bush was speaking in favor of it. That's a remarkable shift. Speculation has abounded as to what sparked Bush's reversal, whether it's boosting book sales or jockeying to run for president in 2016. But the more important question is: What impact will Bush's switch have on the immigration reform effort in Congress?

“… One senior Democratic aide, who requested anonymity to speak freely, said: ‘The process here is going to keep moving. He is not a member of Congress.’ Even if Bush's comments don't derail the process, that won't reduce the shock generated by his shift. ‘Jeb was always pointed out as someone who really got it. I assume he still does,’ the Democratic aide said. ‘It is unfortunate and disappointing.’"