Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg political report is taking flak for labeling the Michigan Senate seat that Carl Levin is vacating a “Safe Democrat” seat.
But Rothenberg is not backing down. In a piece he wrote for Roll Call, Rothenberg explained his reasoning and, with the clear-eyed view of an outsider, reminds Michigan Republicans of their abysmal track record.
The political analyst offers some basic Michigan election stats:
* Democrats have won the past six presidential elections and 11 of the past 12 Senate elections. The lone Senate win came in 1994 when a huge national Republican wave helped Spencer Abraham win retiring Democratic Sen. Don Riegle’s open seat. Abraham lost after one term to Debbie Stabenow.
* Three of the last four GOP Senate nominees -- Andy“Rocky” Raczkowski in 2002, Jack Hoogendyk in 2008 and Peter Hoekstra in 2012 -- failed to reach the 39 percent mark, while the fourth, 2006 nominee Mike Bouchard, drew about 41 percent against Stabenow.
* The closest presidential race in the state since 1988 (when George H.W. Bush carried it comfortably) was in 2004, when Democratic challenger John Kerry defeated President George W. Bush by about 3 1/2 points at the same time that Bush was being re-elected nationally by about 2 1/2 points. And Mitt Romney’s performance in Michigan (one of his home states) went especially badly, with Obama winning by more than nine points, far above his nationwide margin of victory.
Rothenberg’s conclusion is that Michigan is a Blue State where Republicans have had a hard time finding strong candidates for Senate races, and “Michigan has a well-earned reputation of being a state where Republicans float their names to get attention and then eventually decide not to run.”
The longtime political prognosticator offers this warning to those who point to GOP success in races for state office:
“Michigan’s governor, secretary of state and attorney general are all Republicans, and the party controls both houses of the state Legislature. Doesn’t that prove the state is competitive and the GOP has a reasonable chance of winning an open Senate seat, particularly during a midterm election?
"No, for two reasons. First, as I have written ad nauseam, voters traditionally have evaluated candidates for state office differently than they have for federal office. Republicans can get elected governor in Democratic states such as Hawaii, Maryland and even Vermont but have no chance in Senate races or presidential contests in those states. Similarly, voters will elect a Democratic governor from time to time in Republican states such as Wyoming or Kansas but refuse to send a Democrat to the U.S. Senate.
“Second, while Republicans have held some statewide offices in Michigan for years, the party’s current strength in the state can be traced back to the GOP wave of 2010, when swing voters around the country pulled the party’s lever up and down the ballot. Republicans went into that election with a narrow majority in the state Senate and in the clear minority in the state House but came out of the election with a huge majority in the state Senate and a comfortable one in the state House. Because of that election, Republicans controlled redistricting, both at the state and federal levels, giving the party a chance to draw districts that would enhance the chances that they will control those districts throughout the decade.”
Very astute observations.
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