Is immigration the one issue that cracks the code of gridlock?

Amazingly, it appears that immigration reform is one issue where compromise is likely in Washington, thanks to the bipartisan, out-of-the-spotlight work accomplished by the so-called “Gang of Eight” in the Senate.

Of course, this sudden cooperation has more to do with winning elections than creating solid public policy. The Republicans, who previously talked about deporting 10 million illegal immigrants and joked about building an electrified fence at the border, now realize that they have a serious problem attracting Hispanic votes.

After some basic calculations centered on future demographic trends, they’ve decided that pulling a major flip-flop on the immigration issue and wooing Hispanic voters is good politics.

Beyond Capitol Hill, the AFL-CIO and the Chamber of Commerce came to an agreement on the key sticking point of how to handle guest workers.

The number of guest-worker visas will begin at 20,000 and rise, within five years, to 75,000. According to The Washington Post, the future number can vary between 20,000 and 200,000 based on a formula that takes several economic factors into account.

Ezra Klein of the Post calls the deal “a classic political compromise” because it splits the difference between the chamber’s interest in more guest workers and labor’s interest in keeping wages high. Split-the-difference compromises are available but rarely taken because, in Washington, the two sides don’t actually want a compromise.

Here’s how Klein sums things up on his Wonkbook blog:

“Bipartisanship is, unusually, a precious political resource that the minority party has exclusive control over. It is entirely in their power to make even an accommodating president look like a polarizing figure who’s unable to work constructively with the minority party. And more to the point, it’s entirely in their interest.

“Elections really are zero-sum affairs. For one party to win, the other has to lose. The incentives this creates are stunningly dysfunctional. Imagine a workplace where the only way to win a promotion was for the boss to fire your colleague. Even worse, if he likes your colleague’s work, you get a pay cut. Now imagine that your colleague needs your help to finish a big, difficult project. Think you’re going to help him?

“This is why Washington is bitterly polarized place. The rules of politics are designed such that it’s not in the interest of the minority party to work with the majority party. There are moments when countervailing forces — be they public opinion or policy desires — can overcome the basic zero-sum nature of politics. But they’re increasingly rare.

“Immigration reform, however, sits at the center of an unusual convergence of forces that have made it positive-sum politics. Democrats believe in the policy, but they also believe that it’s good — even essential — politics to deliver on the number-one priority of the growing Hispanic electorate. Many Republicans also believe in the policy, and almost all Republicans believe that if their party is to prosper, they need to agree to immigration reform to show Hispanic voters that the GOP isn’t hostile to their interests.”