Poll: Snyder’s days as a Republican moderate are over

A new poll released this morning finds that Gov. Rick Snyder’s popularity is at a low level, in part because moderates and independents no longer think of the Republican incumbent as “one of us.”

To start with, 45 percent of the 600 likely voters polled Feb. 23-24 by Lambert, Edwards & Associates, along with Dennis Denno Research, had an unfavorable opinion of Snyder. Some 38 percent had a favorable opinion and nearly 17 percent were unsure. That third figure is a very high number and suggests that many voters are having second thoughts about One Tough Nerd.

Last weekend’s state GOP convention showed that the tea party still has a strong presence in the Republican Party, and Snyder is not their favorite. Among GOP poll respondents, only 40 percent had a favorable opinion of Snyder – not that much different than Democrats, where 38 percent had a favorable opinion.

The Republican governor’s decision to sign right to work legislation also has hurt him with voters, the LE&A/Denno Reserach survey shows. Forty-seven percent of likely voters said they’re less likely or much less likely to vote for Snyder because he signed the bill in December, while just 29 percent said they’re more likely or much more likely to vote for him because of that issue. Twenty percent said it would make no difference in their vote.

While three-fourths of Democrats and two-thirds of union households said they were less likely to vote for Snyder in 2014 because of right to work, a majority of independent voters – 51 percent – also said the move made them less likely to back Snyder. Only 19 percent of independent voters said they were more likely to vote for Snyder because he signed right to work legislation.

The disappointment expressed by independents could become a major factor if Snyder, as expected, seeks re-election in 2014.

Though he campaigned as a moderate three years ago, most voters now classify Snyder’s political leanings as either hard right (24 percent) or slightly right (29 percent). Only 15 percent view him as a centrist, 10 percent say he leans left and 22 percent are undecided.

“Voters heading into 2014 will have a clearer view of how Rick Snyder will govern if given another four-year term than they did in 2010, when he was a political newcomer,” said Jeff Lambert, president and managing partner of Lambert, Edwards & Associates. “Without knowing which Democrat he’ll be running against in 2014, it’s hard at this point to predict whether voters will rally around him for a second term.”  

Asked about his job performance, voters were equally split, with a third giving him high marks, a third medium marks and a third low marks. Just 2 percent of voters were undecided about Snyder’s job performance in the latest poll, compared to 12 percent last summer.

“Both his personal popularity and his job rating are lower than an incumbent would want heading into re-election,” said Dennis Denno, president of Denno Research. “If his so-so ratings continue, he could have a tough time in 2014.”

Denno also noted that Snyder now is seen by most voters as clearly in the Republican camp.

“As much as Snyder says he’s a moderate, Michigan voters don’t appear to think of him that way,” Denno said.